February 5– Bitcoin Market Enters Bear Market Phase
Key analysis points are as follows:
On-chain indicators signal a bear market: Bitcoin reached a high of $126,000 in early October 2025, at which time the Bull Market Score was 80 （bullish）. However, following the liquidation event on October 10, the index turned bearish and has since dropped to zero. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $75,000, indicating a weak market structure.
Institutional demand has dropped significantly: In 2025, U.S. spot ETFs purchased 46,000 BTC, while in 2026 they net sold 10,600 BTC. Compared with last year, this represents a demand shortfall of 56,000 BTC, continuing to exert selling pressure.
U.S. spot demand remains weak: Despite the price decline, Coinbase premiums have remained negative since mid-October 2025, indicating low U.S. investor participation. This contrasts sharply with past bull markets driven by U.S. demand.
Liquidity conditions tightening: USDT market capitalization growth turned negative for the first time in the past 60 days (-$133 million), marking the first contraction since October 2023. Stablecoin expansion peaked at $15.9 billion in late October 2025, and the current decline is consistent with the liquidity contraction typical of bear markets. Furthermore, visible spot demand growth over the past year has plummeted by 93%, falling from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC.
Technical structure shows downside risk: Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, declining 23% over 83 days, showing weaker performance than the early 2022 bear market. The loss of key on-chain support levels suggests that Bitcoin may further test the $60,000–$70,000 range.